Despite what the papers, pollsters and focus group leaders tell Biden and Starmer – they’re not on a home run…
Here in the UK, The Labour Party is wary of being
too confident. Historically, this is due to the Kinnock effect. People my age
will recall the shoe-in that was supposed to be Neil Kinnock’s 1992 Labour
government - which never was - after the
then leader seemed too overconfident and alienated an electorate
that did not want to be taken for granted.
Was it that simple? I don’t know. I do know that a
more recent election (2015), featuring Ed Miliband, also deemed to be a shoe-in
by political pundits was also lost by Labour.
On this blog I called it correctly at the time.
In the aftermath of Miliband’s failure (whatever
did he do with that stone carved pledge?) there was a wringing of hands in the Westminster bubble and in the press – how could they have got it wrong! In my view
because they looked at it from an entirely political point of view and did not
rule in the psychology of the UK public. Apart from Miliband caving as soon as
the Tories accused him of being too tight with the unions (to which the answer
should have been – YES – we are a party for ordinary working people) he also, to the mind of a public obsessed with soap operas and royalty, stabbed his
brother in the back. The older Miliband was seen as heir elect. Factor these
things in.
The public mood is more feral and febrile than ever
and those in the magic circle don’t always keep up.
Regulars know I am a mad letter writer and it's often interesting to me the ones that do not get published.
E.g. for many years I referred to Tony Blair as a war criminal. Despite the public mood consistently being anti the Iraq invasion – at the time and after the horrors - those letters never got published.
After Putin invaded Ukraine – and after W Bush made his gaffe (or Freudian
slip) confusing Ukraine with Iraq – suddenly it was ok to refer to the war criminal
as a war criminal.
Anyhow – I digress.
In Michigan recently – the Dems had an unpleasant
surprise at the number of voters who responded at the Democrat primary by
returning uncommitted. This was a
peaceful, practical protest against Biden’s too-uncritical support off
Netanyahu and the 100,000 UC votes cast was the result of just a 3 week
campaign. When congratulating themselves on the win, the Biden team ignored
that result which – according to long-term social observer and political titan Michael Moore could be enough to swing an important state come the November elections.
For both Starmer and Biden there is, I believe, an
underestimation of the Gaza effect.
It’s easy, for example, to dismiss the recent election of the vile lunatic George Galloway in the Labour-botched election in Rochdale here in the UK. Drawing wrong conclusions is dangerous.
Both Starmer and Biden will be judged by future generations to have been on the
very wrong side of history over Gaza but more immediately will be shown – to a greater or
lesser extent, not to carry the sentiments of their natural followers. They
have both played it very wrong.
Caution, complacency and credulity have been their Achilles
heels.
Here in the UK the Labour lead over the Tories in
polling is wider than it has been in 40 years. HOWEVER, the problem for Labour in the UK as for the Dems in the US has always been turnout. Back in the 1980s when I was elected as first black
woman to Newcastle City Council, in a wave of naivety and hope – a wise
old-timer warned me on the day that ousting the sitting Tory could depend on
whether or not it rained.
The angels are weeping tears over Gaza and both Biden and Starmer should beware that rain. It could still drown or disastrously dilute their electoral successes. Especially as both need not just to win but to win decisively and carry support with them for the huge national and global challenges ahead.
The ghosts of Gaza are waiting for Biden and Starmer this election...