In my dystopian novella Zero One Zero Two (e-book and paperback) – there is a background landscape where Africa has been quietly abandoned in a world where humanity effectively works its way to destruction.
The forsaking of the historically abused, gruesomely exploited cradle of humanity is not new but Trump’s war-not-a-war, already out of control, begun to distract from his vile past with the infamous paedophile Epstein, is a hugely significant catalyst.
And who have the world’s historically ill-used got to rely on in The United Nations? Well – the five permanent members – the ones who have always carved up the world and done so little for the exploited and the poor; the five who have in fact, historically been the worst colonial abusers, oppressors, warmongers and abusers/destroyers of the globe’s resources; The US, The UK, China, Russia, France.
Yes, in the short term, a world addicted to oil will focus on economic pain and their own inconvenience rather than on human suffering but this is so much bigger than another stupid Western slaughter fest in The Middle East.
Our own bargain basement Trump, the ultimately buffoonish Prime Minister Boris Johnson, chose to cut foreign aid DURING COVID while his government were dishing out government contracts to dodgy mates. And while his behaviour at home led to huge suffering and further loss of confidence in national government – this barely reported act of extreme injustice and cruelty had a much more far-reaching relevance. It was one of the first overt, almost boastful and blatant cruelties without the usual sugar coating and it mattered not a jot, barely registering with the public.
One of Trump’s early actions in his cataclysmic second term was to cut US AID. In 2025 The Centre for Global Development estimated that these cuts would lead to 700,000 additional deaths annually – many in Africa.
Of course there is plenty money for the war machine and Trump’s golden ballroom etc…
But this snake eats itself. Our very denial will be our downfall.
According to organisations such as Debt Justice, Africa subsidises the rest of the world to the tune of around $40billion PER YEAR in both repaying debt that often outweighs aid significantly and in the way its resources continue to be exploited.
Another interesting but ignored figure is the Action Aid calculation that Africa is owed around $36 trillion in Climate Debt by rich countries – countries like the US and Britain that have chosen to cut aid, have been at the forefront of the resource/asset gouging of that continent. However, they continue through politicians and a lazy media to portray Africa as an eternal aid sponge. The hard truth is the exact opposite.
There may be some short-term positive side-effects the Trump’s Iran horror such as more intra-African trade and a shift away from reliance on the unreliable West. Also some African exporting countries such as Libya may get an economic hoist – but whether this will benefit those ‘on the ground’ in a country still without necessary infrastructure and security to provide stable services to all, is not a given.
But as Trump’s stupid war gets away from his stupid rotting little hands – I believe something much bigger has been triggered than just more disruption to the black gold that fuels the comfortable lives of the soft, easy-living-uninterested West. Not least that in this latest sad, humanity-disregarding, episode of Actuarial Warfare – a Middle East country appears for now to be getting the upper hand. Or at least holding its own.
Iran is not Gaza.
Two tiny choke points – The Straits of Hormuz and The Bab-el-Mandeb Straits could take the globe closer to that infamous tipping point. Both are significant for moving huge quantities of the stuff that literally fuels global trade and both are embroiled in Trump’s mess.
The White House malignant narcissist’s blasphemous, incoherent, expletive Easter rant will not ease the situation.
One piece of barely acknowledged news is the immediate crises caused in places such as The Philippines. Much of the cheap labour wealthy countries rely on comes from this small South East Asian country and its overwhelming dependence on imported oil has meant The Philippines was one of the first to directly experience economic disaster.
Africa may partially benefit from its recent growing economic ties with China especially as the economically legendary Petrodollar loses much of its global punch and even shipping securities and insurance companies begin to quote in Yuan. But Africa has already taken massive hits from Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine even though China is on the side – sort of – of Russia. Supplies of both wheat and sunflower oil to the continent have been massively disrupted.
Much of Africa’s farming is Middle East dependent i.e. its fertiliser comes from The Gulf states. And unlike rich countries, poorer areas of the world cannot shield themselves from these shocks. Cuts to aid along with the latest hits to oil/grain and fertiliser are just piling on already unsustainable pressure.
What is being felt immediately in The Philippines has been a long term drip drip effect on Africa and is now exacerbated by the Iran war. The fast, the slow, the short, medium and long-term repercussions will be catastrophic.
What the selfish, insular West should realise however, as in my novella, abandoning The Exploited Continent in this vicious way will ultimately effect those who think they are invulnerable to crises. We are all interdependent.
For decades The West has ignored the in-our-face climate crisis – because it could afford to. The results of Western greed and lazy, disinterested comfort were felt mainly by the poor of the world in countries The West saw as either holiday destinations or cheap resource suppliers.
Just as the West largely ignored the 2008 global financial crisis that it created – because it could.
The West ignored many of the major global health crises until it was touched – AIDS and COVID being the best examples. (I have written on this blog more than once how typical that the world had viagra but no cure for Malaria).
The insulated, cosy West has ignored common sense, logic, history and humanity in such adventures as the illegal invasion of Iraq. Both Bush and Blair prosper free, wealth, at liberty and taking no responsibility for what followed – the destabilisation of The Middle East [again] – mass migration, the rise of the Right Wing in Europe and the tragic knock-on effects we see today.
But there is always an end game. I envisioned a possible one in my novella.
Trump began his distraction war by bombing an elementary girls’ school killing 170 while negotiations were supposedly ongoing. So the suggestion that Iran will return to the negotiating table any time soon is just another Trump fantasy. Why would Iran partake?
The idea that The US is ‘winning’ is also a Trump fantasy. This is Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan and other terrible etceteras.
But this time I strongly argue – the END GAME may not be simply another spectacularly costly US military blunder.
And remember the numbers -
While it costs around $13 million to launch one THAAD missile interceptor. The Iranian missiles it is trying to intercept cost a fraction of that – around $35k. Some of the mines laid in The now infamous Straits of Hormuz cost as little as $1,500. Oh – and approximately 3 THAADs are needed to down one Iranian missile.
I understand those who claim there is some sort of plan behind all this. It’s human nature to look for logic and a comfortable narrative. However, this view seems to be broadly based on the assumption – ‘surely no one can be this stupid’ and if they are ‘surely there are clever people in the background’. To them I say – I have a time-share on Mars to sell you…
Yes, we are hearing about global disruption to oil and rising costs. But here in the UK you’d barely believe the Ukraine suffering is still ongoing let alone this abomination in Iran. This weekend the legacy media were covering the usual slush. Easter eggs, Royal outings to be viewed by the zombie public, celebrity shite, holidays...
We’ve been here before many times.
Too many times.
We have not learned.
This time Trump may simply be painting the background story described in my novella.
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